It is the time of the year when Mary Meeker, the voice of internet prognosis, presents her annual findings, as she has been doing since 1995. Here is a snapshot of what I found relevant;
1. At 277 million Users -India Passed USA to Become #2 Global User Market Behind China.
2. Global Smartphone Unit Shipments Slowing Dramatically = +10% vs. +28% Y/Y - Bad news especially for Apple
3. 2015 Share: iOS = 16% | Android = 81%
4. New Internet Users = Continue to be Harder to Garner Owing to High Penetration in Developed Markets (Per McKinsey)
5. Smartphone Cost in Many Developing Markets = Material % of Per Capita Income... 15% (Vietnam) / 10% (Nigeria) / 10% (India) / 6% (Indonesia) (per McKinsey)
What it means is MORE BAD NEWS FOR APPLE because @ $158, India already has among the lowest average smartphone prices in the world, with only Bangladesh among the surveyed countries lower at $123. At the same time, the cost of a smartphone in India, as a percentage of gross national income per capita, is among the highest in the world. What that means is simple – enough Indians can’t and won’t pay Apple-level prices for their smartphones.
Online Advertising:
1. USA Internet Advertising Growth = Accelerating, +20% vs. +16% Y/Y... Owing to Mobile (+66%) vs. Desktop (+5%)
2. Google + Facebook = 76% (& Rising) Share of Internet Advertising Growth, USA (Google and FB Investors smiling)
3. Video Ads that Work = Authentic / Entertaining / In-Context / Often Brief
4. But online advertising still has a long way to go as advertisers still spend a lot on legacy media.
Retail Channels:
1. Evolution of Commerce Over Past ~2 Centuries, USA = Stores --> More Stores --> Malls --> E-Commerce
2. New / Emerging Retailers Optimize for Generational Change = J.C. Penney --> Meijer --> Walmart --> Costco --> Amazon --> Casper
3. Physical Retailers Become Digital Retailers... Digital Retailers Become Data-Optimized Physical Retailers
4. Many Internet Retailers / Brands reached $100MM in Annual Sales* in less than 5 Years while it took Nike = 14 Years / Lululemon = 9 / Under Armour = 8**
RE-IMAGINING COMMUNICATION:
Messaging:
1. Messaging = Evolving Rapidly
2. Messaging Continues to Grow Rapidly... Leaders = WhatsApp / Facebook Messenger / WeChat
3. Messaging Platform Evolution = More Tools for Simple Self-Expression
4. Asia-Based Messaging Leaders = Continue to Expand Uses / Services Beyond Social Messaging (Wechat, Kakao and Line)
5. Messaging Secret Sauce = Magic of the Thread = Conversational
6. Messaging Platforms = Millions of Business Accounts Helping Facilitate Customer Service & Commerce
7. Best Ways for Businesses to Contact Millennials = Social Media & Chat... Worst Way = Telephone
8. Average Global Mobile User have ~33 Apps in their mobile...12 Apps Used Daily... 80% of Time Spent in 3 Apps
9. Messaging Apps = Increasingly Becoming Second Home Screen
Images:
1. Images = Monetization Options Rising
2. Image-Based Platforms Like Pinterest = Often Used for Finding Products / Shopping
3. Image-Based Platforms Like OfferUp = High (& Rising) Engagement Levels & Used for Commerce
4. Image-Based Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Marketplace OfferUp = Ramping Faster than eBay @ Same Stage
Videos:
1. Visual (Video + Image) Usage Continues to Rise
2. Millennial Social Network Engagement Leaders = Visual... Facebook / Snapchat / Instagram...
3. Generation Z (Ages 1-20) = Communicates with Images
4. User-Shared Video Views on Snapchat & Facebook = Growing Fast (Bad News for Youtube and Google)
5. Real-Live is now Facebook Live --> New Paradigm for Live Broadcasting
6. Video Evolution = Accelerating Live (Linear) --> On-Demand--> Semi-Live --> Real-Live
Voice:
1. Re-Imagining Voice = A New Paradigm in Human-Computer Interaction
2. Voice = Should Be Most Efficient Form of Computing Input
3. As speech recognition accuracy goes from say 95% to 99%, all of us in the room will go from barely using it today to using it all the time. Most people underestimate the difference between 95% and 99% accuracy – 99% is a game changer... No one wants to wait 10 seconds for a response. Accuracy, followed by latency, are the two key metrics for a production speech system
4. Voice as Computing Interface... Hands & Vision-Free = Expands Concept of ‘Always On’
5. iPhone Sales May Have Peaked in 2015... While Amazon Echo Device Sales Beginning to Take Off?
Source: Mary Meeker's INTERNET TRENDS 2016 Report (Read Full Report)
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